Social Determinants of Health

Social Determinants of Health Q1. The Social determinants of health is the observed social, economic, mental and environmental health factors that affect the quality of life of society or its people. The basic formation of these factors have been separated and placed into 10 different categories social gradients, stress, early life, social exclusion, work, unemployment, social support, addiction, food and transport (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). One example of a social determinant of health is the social gradient. The social gradient is a socio-political theory that places people on a social ladder and categorises them based on their overall financial, social and hierarchical standing in society (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). The social gradient demonstrates that life expectancy is shorter and affliction of disease is higher if you reside further down the social ladder (Marmot Wilkinson, 2006). The social gradient demonstrates the effect of social standing on people and how it effects quality o f life, therefore making it a Social Determinant of Health. Q2. Causes of the causes is a term used to describe the social determinants of health for each category and how it may impact upon the other categories. For example Marmot and Wilkinson state that it is not an accident that people regularly consume food with high saturated fat and salt content. What causes this to occur is food availability, culture, affordability and culture as well as many other possible external influences (Marmot Wilkinson, 2006). Then if healthy food prices were to escalate, poorer citizens would struggle to purchase healthy food. The poorer citizens then resort to purchasing cheaper and unhealthier food which contain unhealthy amounts of sugar and fats. These sugar and fats then cause obesity, heart problems and many other diseases and illnesses that effect these people of lower socio-economic status (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). This demonstrates that one category caused an effect in another. In Fig. 8. in the book EN: Social determinants of health it shows the mortality rate from coronary heart disease in comparison to fruit and vegetable supply in selected European countries. (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010) This graph demonstrates that a decrease in health food supplies in kg/per person/per year causes an increase in standardised death rates aged 35-74. There is a direct effect of food prices going up as lack of supply, these items would become less affordable as well as vice versa. A good diet and adequate food supply are main areas of health promotion and overall well-being of a person. (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010) These cause and effect issues are the main issues in dealing with health problems as one change could drastically effect the lives of Australian citizens, particularly those who are in a lower socio-economic standings. (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010) Q3. Barbara is a 52 year old unemployed, single mother who has fallen on hard times. She receives inadequate payments from the government via the Newstart allowance scheme, and struggles to pay off her car loan and rent. Barbara has many problems, however the main focus of this question will be on her social support, her ability to cope with the mental and physical stresses of her life and her health issues involving her current unemployment. Barbara describes her social life as being ‘non-existent’ as a result of her financial difficulties and doesn’t normally get to see her friends, now simple socialising events such as grabbing a coffee with her friends is seen as a luxurious expenditure (Thompson Ramsay, 2013). Socialising is an important experience within our lives, without the help and support and friendship of others, maintaining quality of life would be near impossible. Lack of a social life can even lead to physical problems as explained in the book ‘Social Determinants of Health the Solid Facts’ on the graph Fig. 6 (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). The graph shows results gathered of both male and females in America, Where the age-adjusted mortality rates are compared with level of social integration. The graph demonstrates a correlation of when there is a decrease of social integration, it results in an increase of age-adjusted mortality rate (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). This highlights that we are a social species, isolation can be very damaging and could cause a variety of mental anguish and mentals issues such as depression or even physical problems like an increase of disability from chronic diseases (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). As evident in Fig. 6, lack of social integration can cause physical harm to our bodies and is a quintessential in maintaining our physical health (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). Therefore, Barbara’s lack of social behaviour increases her risk of dying slightly, as small as the increase is, these small Health factors can easily pile up and cause large changes in quality of life. Barbara’s stress mainly forms from her recent unemployment and her increasing debt of her car loan, which escalated to be more than the actual car is worth (Thompson Ramsay, 2013). This emotional strain can be observed on Barbara’s face as she received a Coles gift card for 60 dollars from the Spiers Centre employee (Thompson Ramsay, 2013). Barbara becomes emotional and continually thanks the Spiers centre employee for helping her with her current situation, she highlighted that she would for once be able to pay for her own groceries and toiletries instead of resorting to borrowing them. Barbara’s Stress could also can activate the flight or fight response in the body, resulting increase in heart rate and alertness by stored energy from diverging blood to the muscles, this is known as the stress response (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). Turning on this stress response â€Å"diverts energy and resources away from physiological processes important to long -term health maintenance† (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). Therefore, during periods of long durations of continued stress can lead to increase vulnerability of a wide range of conditions and diseases such as â€Å"diabetes, high blood pressure, heart attack, stroke, depression and aggression† (WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2010). The major cause of the Barbara’s other two issues stated can be linked back to her unemployment. Due to her lack of income, she has resorted to many desperate attempts to keep herself afloat financially. This includes buying items based on budget instead of necessity. The fact that she lost her job as a result of poor health indicates that she was having health issues even before finance and employment were specific problems in her life (Thompson Ramsay, 2013). Therefore, the current events would only aggravate her situation of stress and social isolation she currently is experiencing. Q4. The basic fundamentals of stress can be outlined by what are the causes of stress in the first place and what can be done to remedy these stress factors? According to the Australian Psychological Society, â€Å"Australians aged 18-25 and 46-55 reported the lowest levels of wellbeing† (The Australian Psychological Society, 2014). Stress is caused by many factors, majority of these factors are the result of financial and family issues which is the leading cause of stress amongst Australian citizens (The Australian Psychological Society, 2014). Similar to all previous surveys conducted, issues involving health concerns are frequently rated as sources of stress to people who experience personal health issues, problems with maintaining their healthy and active lifestyle and also issues where a close person’s health has been compromised (The Australian Psychological Society, 2014). With this information you can easily target particular age groups that are experiencing the se issues more than others, and try to involve not just informative ways of creating prevention and improvement but also with the use of practical techniques. Stresses in life come from expectations we have for ourselves, as well as expectation from others for us. In a radio interview with Terence Cheng a researcher from the University of Melbourne’s Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, studied and identified statistics that proved the existence of a midlife crisis, Ashley Hall a reporter for the ABC asked about his findings into. Terence Cheng’s study shows that after the age of 18 there is a gradual decline in happiness until the age of around 40 to 42 years old (Hall, 2014). The stresses in life occur where many events can cause huge outcomes in the happiness of a person, events such as marriage, losing one’s job, illness and death of a close loved one can cause major swings in the happiness and stress of the person experiencing these life events (Hall, 2014). Alan Oster the National Australia Bank’s chief economist conducted a survey that had similar results from the National Australia Bankâ₠¬â„¢s Quarterly Australian Wellbeing Index. Alan Oster states that â€Å"what weve had is that the lowest tended to be in the 18 to 29 year olds, where I think there was a lot of stress in terms of unemployment† (Hall, 2014). These ages indicate where stress is becoming most of a problem, The Australian Psychological Society and Alan Oster both state that slumps in happiness as well as wellbeing occur around the age of 18 to mid-20s because of unemployment. Australia has an unemployment rate of 6.1% which is 115th in the world (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2015; Trading Economics, 2015). We could attribute this to our aging population where there is a total increase of one person every 1 minute and 21 seconds (Australian Bureau of Statistics , 2015). Jobs are drying up as a result of this population increase and therefore my project proposal is to decrease unemployment rates in Australia through funding small and large business, as well as implementing a bonus stimulus for people who have one child or less, in an attempt to slow population growth. The small and large business proposal will be funding small and large businesses for use only allowed on expansion amongst city and urban areas of Australia . This is hoped to create more venues for jobs, allow expansion of companies creating new section for workers, and thus decrease the unemployment rate in Australia.

Thematic Essay on Diary of Anne Frank

The Diary of A Young Girl, written over a two-year period, tells about the life of a young girl named Anne Frank who is also the author, while she and her family are in hiding in Holland. They are staying in a secret attic of the office building where Mr. Frank used to work in order to escape from the Nazis during World War II. During their stay in the annex, they are supported by several people in the office building, who risk their own lives to insure the secrecy of the Jewish hideout and to provide them with food and basic supplies. Throughout the time Anne spends hiding in the annex she develops maturity and gains respect from the people around her. I would say that the theme of this book is adolescence. I think the theme of this book is adolescence because Anne writes in her diary about how she has become more of a women since moving into the annex. She also develops adolescence by being able to see what she did not see in a person before. For example she is asked by Mrs. Van Daan if she could ever picture Peter as a brother, instantly she reacts with disgust like a child. Later on in the book though she begins to develop feelings for Peter, stronger than a brother. She begins to confide in him, and ask him questions about sex. She also writes her father a letter describing her feelings for Peter. Throughout the 2 years Anne spends hiding in the Annex her child self, develops into a mature being, but not yet an adult making the theme of this story adolescence. In The Diary of A Young Girl, Anne Frank, who is our author of the diary writes many entries describing the relationship between her and her Mother. She feels that she does not fit in with her mother, who she thinks is very sentimental. On a diary entry dated October 3, 1942 (page 51) Anne writes â€Å"I simply can’t stand mother, and I have to force myself not to snap at her all the time, and to stay calm, when I’d rather slap her across the face, I don’t love her, I can imagine mother dying some day. † This diary entry written by Anne clearly shows the strong dislike she had towards her mother. Because Anne is a child and not mature enough she feels that when her mother tells her she did not do something right, and to do it again, Anne takes it personal and gets very frustrated. Her mom constantly does this and it makes Anne furious causing her to hate her mother at an unbelievable level. Later on in Anne’s diary though the theme adolescence is developed when Anne reads through her diary and is shocked at how negatively she wrote of her mother in past entries. On Page 155 in her entry of December 24, 1943 she wrote â€Å"Do you know what I’ve come up with? In order to give me the feeling of calling my mother something that sounds like â€Å"Mom,† I often call her â€Å"Momsy. Sometimes I wish I could honor her by removing the â€Å"s. † In this entry it clearly shows us Anne has more respect towards her mother now and has matured significantly. She regrets all the horrible things she ever said about her mother, and is able to see that it was not her mother that was really the problem but her maturity, and she realizes this because of her adolescence. Anne thinks she has grown wiser since then and now understands her mother bette r. She sees herself as an adolescent now. Another way the theme is developed in this is story is how Anne’s feelings change towards Peter, a boy who is also staying in the annex with his family and the Frank family. In Anne’s diary she writes an entry on September 25, 1942 (page 40) describing Peter’s personality, â€Å"They asked me in a typically grown-up way whether I could ever learn to love peter like a brother, since he loves me like a sister. â€Å"Oh, no! † I said, but what I was thinking was, â€Å"Oh, ugh! † Just imagine! I added that Peter’s a bit stiff, perhaps because he’s shy. Boys who aren’t used to being around girls are like that. In this entry she writes about Peter in a childish way, she says with disgust that she could never see Peter as a brother, and of course she would say it that way because her personality and attitude is still like one of a child. The theme adolescence is developed because her feelings towards Peter change. Earlier in her diar y entries she wrote how Peter is nervous around girls because he is not used to being around them, and she goes on about how immature and foolish he is. But they soon begin to talk like adults and open up to each other. Anne soon then confides in him, and begins to see he is not who she thought he was. She is more mature around him, and treats him with great respect because she likes the personality she gets from him. She transitions from a child to a mature teenager, her maturity is greatly because of the time she spends with Peter. Anne’s adolescence is also due to appreciating what she has in life. In a diary entry on November 27, 1943 (page 149) Anne writes about a dream she has about an old school mate, Hanneli. She writes about the dream and how it akes her thankful for what she has. In the dream Anne pictures Hanneli dressed in rags, her face thin and, worn, and she is begging Anne to rescue her, in the dream Hanneli is at a concentration camp. In this dream Anne can not help Hanneli, she can only stand by and watch while other people suffer and die. Anne realizes that there are millions of Jews who do not have the advantages she has, she could be at a concentration camp starving and d oing hard labor work, or even dead. But instead she is safe and warm with her family, who she before could not get along with. Anne greatly matures after all of this, she is able to see that she was such a child before who thought greatly of herself. She hated doing work around the house, and complained constantly about her mother. But after this dream she knows that she should have worried about other things, like the war. Anne leaves her childish acts and complaints behind and becomes a mature young adult! The best theme for this book is clearly adolescence. A young girl hiding in an Annex writing in her diary for 2 years can definitely develop a sense of maturity even with no contact of the outside world what so ever. Just because Anne is stuck hiding in an Annex and not able to go outside, she has plenty to do, to pass the time. She writes her feelings and thoughts in her diary, and writes meaningful events that talk about her adolescence. Her adolescence is greatly due to her appreciating what she has in life, because it makes her realize that not everyone has the advantages she has and that her complaints and hate towards many things are things that are less to even think about, she should not think about herself too much. Also changing her thoughts and opinions develops her maturity as well. She does not get along well with her mother or Peter, but she soon is able to confide in them and love and appreciate them. I think that Anne’s adolescence throughout the book is a very good thing. She is still very young when she does mature, and not many people at that age have the maturity that she gains. I appreciate the fact that Anne is able to mend the relationship with her and her mother. I know how it feels to have someone constantly nag at you and it is very hard to forgive someone, and I respect and honor that Anne was able to love her mom in the end of it all. I think everyone has a little bit of Anne in them, people regret things they do and say in life, and although it is a mistake it helps them to look back and learn from it, and gain a sense of maturity. It is a very good thing, and although Anne did not survive the war we can all learn from this book and appreciate life as it is now!

The Solution to World Poverty - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 1 Words: 344 Downloads: 5 Date added: 2019/04/16 Category Society Essay Level High school Tags: Poverty Essay Did you like this example? In addition to the struggle and suffering the Americans face due to poverty, and the right to spend their hard-earned money, another factor that Singer did not consider is how the economy depends on the Americans expenses, so if people dont spend money on expenses, the economy will crash. In his essay, the author is convincing people not to spend money on the not so essential items in everyday life. The idea he has to end poverty is to have the developed nations save money in order to donate to the less fortunate. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The Solution to World Poverty" essay for you Create order He describes the bad habits that most Americans have like going frequently to restaurants, buying new clothes, or doing activities that require spending extra money as a few examples of how people spend their income on things that are considered necessities to them. However the issue comes to light when attempting to execute or enforce this solution when there is an unknown borderline between a luxury and necessity and to how it is decided. One example is a television set, if it is considered a luxury, there is a possibility that many television manufacturers can go out of business. A large percentage of these companies and factories are dedicated to manufacturing luxurious items, however, if people no longer continue to buy these items and donate it all to the poor, this would cost the factories its workers jobs that, therefore, create a cynical effect and can intensify the already global issue of world poverty. If people follow these criteria, the economy will not sustain itself and will probably crash. So in order to circulate money, the supply and demand need to be carefully incorporated because as demand increases for the products, more supply is generated, therefore more people will need work to reach the equilibrium. This will push the ec onomy to create more jobs, can lower unemployment and allows the financial institution to operate efficiently. So when the economy is moving forward, everybody would have jobs, and more jobs will be in demand, more people will have the power to help.

Analysis Of The Book The White Tiger - 1527 Words

The White Tiger is a novel, in which Aravind Adiga deals with the issue of class and caste difference. The narrative attempts to highlight struggle and exploitation of the common and poor strata of society of India. It is in that sense it is a realistic novel identifying and reflecting over the burning issues of the society. Through the psycho realistic narrative the author presents the gloomier picture of the rural life at the protagonist’s native, Laxmangarh. The protagonist is an aspirant of becoming entrepreneur, narrates his past in a conversation with an interlocutor, a Chinese premier, Mr. Wen Jiabao. Balram’s past reveals his poverty and unemployment at his native. He also narrates his village life style and growing need of financial security to his family for which he shifts to the Light i.e. city, New Delhi. After migrating to an urban area he is exploited by overburdened work in the Stork’s family where he performs all sorts of house work alongside his main duty of chauffeur. But through this struggle he finally plans to overcome his status. He believes and propagates the socialist ideology. The paper explores and criticizes the capitalistic ideology having more self centeredness and utilitarianism which has its repercussions of class and caste conflict, unequal distribution of wealth and exploitation. Keynotes: economic, social, dichotomy, the Darkness, the Light, proletarians, bourgeois, unequal distribution of wealth. Widening income inequality is the definingShow MoreRelatedTaboo1547 Words   |  7 PagesTaboo: Why Black Athletes Dominate Sports And Why We’re Afraid to Talk About It for my book on minority representation in media. This book embarks on a subject that very few have been willing to discuss openly in the past fifty years. 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State Of Colorado s Current Gsp - 1316 Words

Mary Jane Shively ECON 204 October 7, 2014 Writing Assignment #1: State Analysis Part 1: State Output: Gross State Product Gross State Product (GSP) is a measurement of the economic output of a state or province, and is the sum of all the value added by industries within the state. The current level of GSP in New York available is 1,310,712 million in 2013, showing a 2.3% change from 2012 GSP. The 1-year change represents an increase in gross state product by about 29,975 million dollars. In order to further understand these values, it is important to compare them with another state. The state of Colorado’s current GSP is 294,443 million, which is significantly lower than New York. However, when comparing the two states, it is important to factor in population size. New York has a much larger population than Colorado, and therefore GSP per capita may be better way to compare the two states. New York’s GSP per capita is 62,212 million and Colorado’s is 51,956 million according to the U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis. While GSP per capita allows for a more accurate comparison of the two states, New York’s GSP and GSP per capita still exceed Colorado’s by a wide margin. New York could have these high levels of GSP for a number of reasons including: a larger population, more international trade, and being home to one of the largest cities in the world. All of these factors allow New York to produce more goods and services annually, resulting in a highShow MoreRelatedEconomic Health Of Oregon By Looking At Gross State Product, Unemployment, And Inflation Essay1082 Words   |  5 Pagesproduced contributing to Gross State Product. Inflation is an indication because it determines how much real value is being lost(Graham). In this paper I will analytically discuss the economic health of Oregon by looking at its Gross State Product, unemployment and cost of living. Gross State Product(GSP) is the total dollar value of all final output produced within a state in a certain time period, usually one year (Schiller). The aspects that contribute to a state’s GSP are all private and publicRead More It Is Time To Legalize Marijuana Essay2824 Words   |  12 Pageslegalized. During the time of illegalization of marijuana, the drug had a vastly negative feeling associated with it, which many people now believe to be inaccurate and unfair. Now that people are more informed, more connected and more vocal, the United States government should allow and even encourage more research of the dangers and addictive nature of the drug which will assuredly legalize medical use and possibly recreational use to benefit people and the economy greatly. This paper will discuss many

Does Ghost Exist in Real Life Free Essays

Does ghost exist in real life? It has been a popular question been ask for few decades. Some people encounter the supernatural phenomena, some not. So there are people who believe and people who disbelieves. We will write a custom essay sample on Does Ghost Exist in Real Life? or any similar topic only for you Order Now Therefore, here are some introduction of what ghost really is, where we can find their existence, how can we feel their presence and does science proof the existence of ghost. In traditional belief and fiction, a ghost (sometimes known as a spectre (British English) or specter (American English), phantom, apparition or spook) is the soul or spirit of a dead person or animal that can appear, in visible form or other manifestation, to the living. Descriptions of the apparition of ghosts vary widely from an invisible presence to translucent or barely visible wispy shapes, to realistic, lifelike visions. The deliberate attempt to contact the spirit of a deceased person is known as necromancy, or in spiritism. The region that ghosts, demons, devils, and negative energies occupy or come from, varies depending on their spiritual power, capabilities and so on. Any being such as human being or subtle body that feels comfortable in their respective region because their frequencies correspond to that region. With increasing spiritual power, the ghosts become even more subtle and are found in progressively deeper negative regions. Thus ghosts who have the least spiritual power are found in the Nether region. The ghosts that exist in the deeper rungs of Hell are progressively more powerful and evil. There are few theories about ghosts. Many believe that non-reactive apparitions of people that seem to do the same things over and over are some form of energy-imprint on the environment. This type of ghost manifestation is known as a non-intelligent haunting or a residual haunting, and is called such due to the lack of interaction between the ghost and the living. This type of ghost is not dissimilar to a video playing over and over, ever seeming to repeat itself. Could these types of ghosts have been produced by strong thoughts created by people while living, and continuing to exist within the atmosphere in some form or fashion? This theory concerning ghosts remains unproven. We ponder if it is also possible that this type of ghost is just trapped in time, unable to communicate or interact with the living due to severe emotional trauma – a self-created mental prison, if you will. Both ghost theories regarding non-reactive ghosts will have to be worked on in the future to see which has merit. Another type of ghost is called a poltergeist, which many believe to be the projected psychokinetic energy of a living person that creates movement of objects and various noises. Though the word â€Å"poltergeist† is German for â€Å"noisy ghost,† this type of phenomenon is not attributed to ghosts by those who have studied such accounts. It seems true poltergeist haunting activity is typically centred around a female adolescent in the home who is unwittingly producing the disturbance. The disturbance typically ceases over time, as the adolescent ages. A theory regarding ghosts centres around the previously described condition the earthbound spirits find themselves in. For these reasons, we believe many a haunting occurs, as ghosts are suffering and in need of assistance in easing the emotional pain. We believe that we are finding most ghostly activity, such as noises, dreams, visible appearances, various disturbance, communications, touching, and even attacks, can all be explained by coming to understand the desperate minds of pained, disembodied spirits. They are simply people in need of spirit rescue. Ghosts exist in a variety of places on Earth. They can create a centre for themselves in living and non-living objects. By centre we mean a place where they store their black energy. The centre acts as an entry point and a point of receiving or transmitting their black energy. Ghosts generally create a centre for themselves in people, trees, houses, electrical equipments etc. When they create a centre for themselves in people, it is to fulfil their desires such as eating, drinking, smoking, sex or to settle a give-and-take account. Since the ghosts are made up of the Absolute Air element, one cannot see them without subtle vision. When people repeatedly experience various forms of inexplicable distress, around a place, person or object, it is very likely that the place, person or object is affected or possessed by a ghost. Feelings of distress include feeling of apprehension, feeling a presence, feeling like one’s entire energy is being sucked out or repeated mishaps happening in a certain place, without any apparent reason. The actual presence of the ghosts is however evident only to those with an activated sixth sense. The ghosts there cause distress to those who come in the vicinity or possess them, especially those who are vulnerable psychologically such as anxious and depressed or spiritually whereas people with low spiritual level are easy to get affected or possessed by ghosts. Nowadays, modern technology has rushed to the rescue by providing ghost hunters with myriad devices to capture the images, videos, and voices of ghosts. Unfortunately, tricksters and frauds have used the same technology to fool a number of people. No wonder that genuine evidence that ghosts exist is being dismissed as fraud material. People, especially those with a scientific or rational background, tend to dismiss any explanation that ghosts exist with disbelief and amusement. There are some scientific proof that ghost exist in the form of energy. The law of thermodynamics, if examined from a different angle, could prove that ghosts exist. Even if it cannot be taken as proof, it could give rise to a number of questions. If these questions are taken seriously and attempts made to find answers to them, we might very well come up with proof that ghosts exist. The law of thermodynamics is the most significant law among the gravitational laws. A careful study of it reveals the fact that science has already proved that ghosts do exist. According to this law â€Å"Energy can neither be created nor destroyed; it can only change form. † Let us now analyze this law carefully. Energy never dies, according to this important law; instead, energy shifts from one form to the other. Accordingly, the energy that we are is not destroyed by death; it just changes form. Skeptics would say that our bodies would be decomposed by the action of the microorganisms, and this is how human energy would change form. But, what about the intelligence that gives us an identity? Just consider the amazing nature of our minds and bodies. Would all this just end up as being fodder for the microbes? Does this sound like a fair exchange? The more one questions, the more one feels that there is more to life than what meets the scientific eye. In conclusion, other theories regarding ghosts do exist, such as ghosts being simply the creation of the overactive mind, hallucinations, carbon monoxide poisoning, exposure to low frequencies, etc; but we are seeing too many pieces of the puzzle come together that cannot be explained away in total by the various, sceptically theories. We ask ourselves the age-old question, â€Å"Do ghosts exist? † But in the end, realistically it’s impossible to say whether ghosts are real or not. It’s all down to the beliefs of the person themselves. To me and my experience of Ghosts or Spirits is of that they do exist, because of some experiences I have had in the past. However to many others with no experience it may be seen as total rubbish. How to cite Does Ghost Exist in Real Life?, Essay examples

Highline Case Study free essay sample

Define the Problem: Highline Financial Services, Ltd. offers three diverse services to its clientele. We are given the demand for the three services over a two year period broken down into four quarters each totaling eight quarters of data. Given this data, we are asked to forecast the following four quarters for year three and explain the observations made. However, we must assume that Highline Financial Services, Ltd. has not made any changes in advertising, promotion or competition. For this problem we look to try and gather an estimate of what the best forecasting method will be for the demand of services A, B, and C. The methods of analysis used to attain the figures include; linear regression, regression model, and forecast error analysis. Plan the Treatment: In order to apply all of the demand forecasting methods properly and acquire the most accurate demand forecast, we must do the following†¦ Graph historical demand – define the key data elements. We will write a custom essay sample on Highline Case Study or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Define the time horizon – forecast must include a time interval. Clean the Historical data – there usually exist problems with the quality and completeness of data, â€Å"clean† (remove) all data that is found unnecessary to the forecast. Select a forecasting technique or multiple forecasting methods. Make the forecast. Execute: In order to make the best forecast possible, it is imperative to understand the past demand in order to better see what type of data and trends to look for. Linear Regression attempts to model a relationship between two variables; the dependent variable (y) and an explanatory variable (x). Linear Regression allows for a visual look into the linear trend of a forecast. It formulates the best-fitting straight line for the plotted data. Linear Regression allows for a visual view in determining whether the trend is ascending (positive) or descending (negative). Thus, we are already given clues that adjustments for trends may be necessary. Now that the demand data has been analyzed, I will begin to explain the three methods of forecast mentioned in the section (define the problem). Static Regression Forecasting: We now perform a static forecast of the demand data to give us a model which has level and trend as constants. These parameters are based off historical data provided, and held constant for the forecasting of new demand. The static forecasts for services A, B, and C are shown below. The steps necessary to obtain their values are used with the regression tool in excel. First you plot the x and y coordinates into an excel spreadsheet. Afterwards, you would select the demand data, click on the Data tab – Data Analysis Tab – Search for Regression – Input the y and x range – Click Ok. Once these forecasts have been made, we can stack the forecasting method against the actual demand to observe its effectiveness. Service A: Service B: Service C: Deseasonalizing: Seasonal variations are â€Å"regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events† (Stevenson). However, our demand data lacks the information used to develop seasonal relatives. Thus, in order the remove the seasonal component from a set of data, one would deseasonalize the data. Deseasonalizing data allows for a clearer representation of the non-seasonal (trend) components. In order to obtain deseasonilzed demand for the forecast one must divide the demand data by the seasonal relative. The resulting values from this equation were calculated in excel and are shown below. The tables descend from Service A BC. Deasonalized demand for quarter three in the table above was obtained by taking 100 and dividing it by 1. 40056. D1= 100/1. Now that the regression results are obtained, we have the equations to get the deseasonalized regressed demand equations. The equations are: Service A: 64. 2 + 2. 4x Service B: 90. 2875 + (-2. 425)(x) Service C: 98. 3875 + (-0. 6)(x) To find the average seasonal factor for each quarter we simply take the same quarter of every year and average all of them together. Once the average seasonal factors are obtained, you can obtain the re-seasonalized data forecasts by multiplying the regressed demand against the average seasonal factor for each period. This acquired demand data is now used as your forecast demand. Forecast Error Calculation: Error analysis can provide a helpful look at the effectiveness of a forecast as it tells us how our forecasting method statistically stacks up against the actual demand data that we have been given. If the error analysis comes back with low errors, we know we have created a good forecast. The methods for finding these error values are shown below: Error: is found by simply subtracting the forecasted demand against the actual demand. Absolute Error: Absolute value of the error. Mean Squared Error (MSE): States the variance (square root) of the forecast error, and is calculated with the following equation, MSE= ? (Actualt – Forecastt)2 / n-1 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): is the average absolute forecast error solved with the following equation, MAD =? |Actualt – Forecastt| / n Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): determines whether a forecast is consistently over-estimating or under-estimating the demand. The equation is as follows, MAPE= (? |Actualt Forecastt| / Actualt) *100)) / (n) % Error: Measures the percent difference between the absolute error and the actual demand. Solved by the following equation: %E= 100*(Absolute Error/ Demand) Conclusion: Overall, Service A appears to be increasing and should continue to increase over the next year (four quarters). According to the Adjusted R Square, the model is an A model with a score of . 996104. Service B appears to be decreasing annually and the data demonstrates that it will most likely follow a decreasing pattern. However, although Service B has a negative slope it is also the best rated model with and Adjusted R Square of . 99666. Service C shows an inconsistent demand pattern. Service C was also rated as an F model with an Adjusted R Square of .  229114. In addition, Service C is very scattered and has a high mean absolute deviation. Concern: In general all three services follow a trend. However, according to the forecasted data, Service B poses the greatest risk of concern. Service B continues to follow a downward linear trend in both the historical data and the forecasted data. Thus signifying that demand for Service B will continue to decrease. Simply, Service B has little opportunity for growth and anticipates a decline in profit. In addition, even though Service C follows an inconsistent pattern, overall it continues to follow a minimal increase in its linear trend. As mentioned earlier, Service C was rated as an F model, thus suggesting that there is room for improvement. If improvements are made the model will increase to a level closer to 1. 00 or 100% thus making it a better model. Eventually, there might still appear a scatter in data however the demand will continue to increase with a positive slope. Forecasting: Forecasted data is only an estimate, can and is subject to change. Works Cited: Stevenson, William J. Operations Management. 11th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2012. Print.